Thursday, December 07, 2006

FTfm: Nigeria could be next emerging gem. For who?

FINACIAL TIMES of UK,
Nigeria could be next Emerging Gem.

Now that the Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] has shot-gun married Nigeria's 25 banks with foreign asset managers, FT drums that "the outlook for the country, and Africa as a whole, looks bright"

What does all this mean?:

- CBN has handed over control of internal money management to foreign interests. CBN continues the economic hitman assignment partnered by the Nigerian Ministry of Finance. Rather than improve bank relevance to local wealth creation, and increase the outreach and efficacy of financial services into the real economy, this dynamic duo forcibly concentrated bank power with conditionalities similar those that ensure other privatised national assets such as NITEL, NEPA, (and soon NNPC) do not fall into local ownership and control.
- MoF/CBN has already handed over control over Nigeria's foreign reserves, as well as over usd25 billion CASH MONEY as USD35 billion dubious debt buyback, to these same foreign banks. That is over 70 cents to the dollar, in severely distressed debt investment! How many foreign-sourced private equity investments has resulted? Can you say "odo"?
- Outlook looks bright for who? Local communities or foreign shareholders?? None of the foreign asset managers mentioned has a history of building community wealth. Have they been catalysts to "development" in USA/Europe's own urban and minority communities? As for Nigeria's banks, their most widely known and effective role in Nigeria is as agents of Western Union.
- Nigeria has the highest concentration of private investors/entrepreneurs in Africa. Taking over enterprise investment in Nigeria will mean taking down wealth creation in local communities across 'Africa as a whole'. Luckily, entrepreneurs in Africa are savvy about the "foreign investor good, local government/businesses bad" mantra of various do-gooders in Nigeria/Africa. They know that once money gets into the banks, CBN/FGN commandeers it to undermine domestic productivity. The longer they keep their money out of the banks, the more they are able to build and defend their homes and schools and other infrastructure.
- "Africa's markets have been growing at a phenomenal rate" as the article says. THIS GROWTH IS DESPITE the incompetence and conflicted interests of the CBN and Africa's other central banks. It is this growth that foreign well-wishers want to manage. Draw analogies from the minerals sector. For all the decades of 'capability-building' of 'foreign asset managers' like Shell, Exxon, Anglo-American and co in Africa's mineral resources sectors, how many African managers have they 'incubated' into maturity. Rather, the tendency is for increased entrenchment of these asset strippers.
- Nigeria/Africa can ONLY emerge if it builds domestic wealth from capabilities in production, refining, distribution, and financing/investment. No foreign investor/manager/donor can be expected to seek this outcome.

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